On June 24, 2020, three buyers closed on new condominiums from the developer at Union House, the 41-unit building at the corner of Union Street and Van Ness Avenue. Same building, same day, same market conditions. This summer all three sold, within about five weeks of each other, and their results ended up thirty percentage points apart.
| Unit | Bedrooms | Bought, June 2020 | Sold, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4B | 2 | $2,200,000 | $2,750,000, June 23 | +25.0% |
| #5C | 2 | $2,835,000 | $2,900,000, July 7 | +2.3% |
| #4G | 1 | $1,375,000 | $1,300,000, July 31 | −5.5% |
Both two-bedrooms sold for more than their 2020 prices. The one-bedroom sold for less, and it took 92 days to go under contract. #5C took twelve. The same split runs through the condo market across Cow Hollow and its neighbors, and it changes how a buyer should read every price-per-foot figure quoted for the area.
The Rate Rises With the Bedroom Count
In most housing markets, larger homes sell for less per square foot. The kitchen, the entry and the building's fixed costs are spread over more space, so each additional foot adds less to the price. Cow Hollow's 2026 condo record runs the other way.
One broker's tally of condo sales across Pacific Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina from January through September 18, 2026 counted 172 sales at a median of $1,575,000 and $1,343 per square foot. Broken out by bedroom count, the figures rise as the units get bigger:
| Unit type, 2026 through Sept. 18 | Sales | Median price | Median $/sq ft | Median size | Median days to contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-bedroom | 52 | $1,100,000 | $1,267 | 860 sq ft | 13 |
| Two-bedroom | 65 | $1,548,000 | $1,303 | 1,259 sq ft | 11 |
| Three-bedroom | 46 | $3,355,000 | $1,573 | 1,951 sq ft | 10 |
Going from two bedrooms to three raises the rate per foot by about 21 percent, and the three-bedrooms also went under contract fastest. Forty-six sales is a real sample. The higher rate for large units is a pattern across the year, not one trophy sale pulling the median up.
August made the split plain. Among the month's condo sales across the three neighborhoods, six three-bedrooms sold between $2.59 million and $4.5 million, and nine smaller units sold at $1.55 million and below. Nothing sold between $1.55 million and $2.58 million. Those are two separate groups of buyers.
What a Three-Bedroom Condo Is Competing With
The higher rate makes sense once you see what a large condo is competing with. In August 2026, single-family homes in the combined Marina and Cow Hollow area sold at a median of $9,050,000, or $2,251 per square foot, for an average of 125.8 percent of list price. That's a nine-sale sample, so it's a thin measure, but it's consistent: houses here are scarce, expensive and bid well above asking.
A buyer who wants a house's space and privacy without a $9 million budget ends up looking at large condominiums, so the best of them are priced against houses. In early September, 2946 Pierce Street showed how that plays out. The two-level condominium, in a building dating to 1900, was marketed as a condominium that lives like a single-family home, with four bedrooms and an exclusive-use deck of about 900 square feet facing the Bay. It was listed at $3,995,000 on August 21 and closed on September 8 at $6,700,000, eighteen days later. On the listed 2,915 square feet, that's $2,298 per foot.
That's slightly above the $2,251 August median for houses in the combined Marina and Cow Hollow area. A condominium with house-like features sold at a house-level rate.
The newer buildings along Van Ness show the same thing at the top of their range. At The Belvedere, 2525 Van Ness Avenue, unit #602 sold in August for $4,130,000. It's a 1,951-square-foot three-bedroom, and the price came to $2,117 per foot after 19 days on the market. It had the highest rate of any condo sold in the three neighborhoods that month. Across the avenue at Union House, the 2026 two-bedroom median through October 15 was $2,266 per foot.
What a One-Bedroom Is Competing With
The smaller units are in a different market. They compete with one- and two-bedroom condos across northern San Francisco, and the 2026 one-bedroom rate of $1,267 per foot in these three neighborhoods sits much closer to that wider market than the area's headline median suggests. For context, the citywide condo median in August 2026 was $1,129 per square foot.
At Union House, the two one-bedrooms sold in 2026 at a median of $1,125,000, or $1,232 per foot. #4F, at 913 square feet, closed at $950,000 in April, which works out to $1,041 per foot, below the citywide figure. In the same building that year, the two-bedrooms sold at more than double that per-foot rate.
The clearest example is a few blocks west, where the Marina and Cow Hollow meet along Lombard. Maison Au Pont, at 2448 Lombard Street at Divisadero, was finished in 2020 by JS Sullivan Development with architect Alan Tse. Like Union House, it has 41 units over ground-floor retail. It's the same age and size as Union House, and its sales history looks very different:
- Both 2026 sales through October 15 were one-bedrooms, at a median of $1,328 per foot. That's 8 percent below the building's $1,443 opening rate in 2020.
- #208, at 719 square feet, sold for $955,000 on June 23 after 65 days. It had sold new in September 2020 for $1,025,000, so this resale was 6.8 percent lower.
- #313 sold for $775,000 on January 22 after 134 days. Neither sale went under contract within two weeks.
Monthly dues at Maison Au Pont run roughly $570 to $870. For a buyer comparing a $900,000 one-bedroom with others across the city, those dues are part of the price.
More Supply Is Planned for Lombard
If the large-unit premium comes from scarcity, the next question is where new housing will be built. San Francisco's Family Zoning Plan took effect on January 12, 2026. It concentrates new height and housing capacity on major transit and commercial streets. In Cow Hollow, that means Lombard.
The first visible result is 2629 Lombard Street. SF YIMBY reported on an initial proposal for a six-story, 65-foot building with 15 units, three of them deed-restricted affordable, and no on-site parking. The plans are preliminary and could change. When the San Francisco Chronicle looked at the plan's early effect in August, it counted only seven proposed projects citywide, together adding fewer than 40 units.
That's a small amount of new housing, and none of it has been built yet. Its location still matters. New multi-unit buildings without parking along a commercial street are more likely to add units that compete with Lombard's existing condos than with a renovated two-level flat on Pierce Street with a Bay-facing deck. Large condos don't get much new competition from this kind of building.
Reading a Cow Hollow Condo Listing With This in Mind
The rate for the whole area has been rising. Across the three neighborhoods, the median price per foot went from $1,311 in the first quarter of 2026 to $1,465 in the third quarter through September 18, while monthly sales fell to 19, 16 and 11 over the past three months. An area-wide average still blends two markets. For a buyer comparing specific units, the 2026 record suggests a few things:
- Compare a large condo with houses, not with the condo median. A three-bedroom with outdoor space and parking is priced by what a house costs in the same area. If that seems high next to the condo average, compare it with the house figures instead.
- Compare a one-bedroom with the whole city. Its resale buyers will be choosing among one-bedrooms in many neighborhoods. Union House and Maison Au Pont both show that a 2020 purchase price wasn't guaranteed to hold six years later.
- Check the specific features behind a price. At 2946 Pierce, the deck, the two levels and the house-like layout account for much of the price. Units without those features don't get the same premium.
- Expect a long wait if you're selling a small unit. In 2026, three-bedrooms went under contract in a median of 10 days across the three neighborhoods. The one-bedrooms at Maison Au Pont took 65 and 134 days.
A Few Questions Buyers Ask
Is the Marina and Cow Hollow condo figure in market reports specific to Cow Hollow? No. The August 2026 brokerage figure of $1,479 per square foot across 36 sales combines the Marina and Cow Hollow, and its own source flags it as a small sample. Building-level sales history is the clearer guide.
Do newer buildings hold their value better? Union House and Maison Au Pont were both finished in 2020 and both have 41 units. Through October 15, 2026, Union House's median rate was $1,814 per foot, above its 2020 opening rate, while Maison Au Pont's was 8 percent below its own. In this record, unit size and location mattered more than the building's age.
Will the Family Zoning Plan change prices in Cow Hollow soon? So far the plan has produced proposals, not finished buildings. The 2629 Lombard project is still at the preliminary stage.
This post is general market information. It isn't legal, tax or financial advice, and buyers should review HOA documents and costs with the right professionals.
Tania Toubba can help you tell which market a specific unit belongs to before you write an offer or set a price. You can request a private consultation about any Cow Hollow listing.
